Beef - Indicators still suggest further inflation is a significant risk. Deadweight prices are stabilising; however, cattle numbers are reduced YOY, and demand has remained strong. The summer demand for trim and processed products will continue to be high and potentially increase pricing for these further. The more expensive primal cuts should continue to settle. 

Chicken - Chicken availability in the UK remains tight, with strong competition among suppliers for Red Tractor-assured (RT) stock. This is driven by two main factors. While the Avian Influenza situation in Europe has eased with the warmer weather, recovery has been slow - especially for Eastern European producers who experienced severe losses due to flock culls. Availability has stabilised somewhat in recent weeks, but challenges are expected to return later in 2025 as strong consumer demand continues. This will most likely support current pricing levels and there is a risk of further inflation if there are any more availability challenges.

Turkey - Availability in the run up to this year’s festive period will be the most challenging you have ever experienced in terms of price which are already at record highs and rising weekly. UK Slaughter numbers are down 30% YOY and turkey producers have exited the market; the biggest supplier in the EU has gone; those who have stopped rearing Turkey have turned to Poultry for quicker returns on a short market.

Lamb - Record UK lamb prices in early 2024 but flock numbers as farmers sold ewes instead of breeding. This has resulted in the lowest breeding flock in the UK since records began. Forecast consumption of lamb volumes in 2025 have been revised downwards to a 7% decline compared to last year’s levels.

Pork - The market remains stable and is expected to stay that way for the short to medium term.

• Top Tip #1: Plan ahead for the turkey shortage this Christmas - if you're working on your Christmas menus, remember to consider the low turkey stock issues and the rising costs. Stock up the freezer with frozen turkey ahead of time, or consider other poultry alternatives for your Christmas menus.
• Top Tip #2: We are still recommending reducing beef consumption in favour of more cost-effective options such as poultry and pork. We also recommend a switch from Beef into Wild Venison products. There is a significant carbon reduction from Beef to Wild Venison making it a great sustainable initiative. With the price volatility of Beef in recent months, Wild Venison is a great solution and offers much more pricing stability.

Whitefish - Market continues to increase in difficulties with cod and haddock being at extreme highs. The cod quota is likely to be reduced again this year making it the least amount of quota in 20 years. Norwegian haddock pricing has increased by c. 40-50% year-on-year proving Alaskan pollock the best option on a whitefish alternative being most price sensitive and MCS 1-2!

Farmed seabass - is at record highs with high mortality from hot weather and increased labour costs being the prime movers. Mortalities are increasing with hot weather in the Mediterranean and will continue to increase pricing. Wild-caught British seabass is now the best option.

Milk - Soaring temperatures and dry soils are putting heavy pressure on UK pastures, leaving farmers facing a difficult winter with reduced silage stocks. Many will likely need to supplement with bought in feed, and some are even selling herds as they can’t afford the extra costs  all of which could push milk prices higher as we head into winter.

Butter - EU butter prices rose +5% MoM and are +14% higher YoY. EU butter production was supported by processors channelling milk into the butter stream to build up stock for the second half of However, current stock levels are below last year’s figure.

Cheese - EU cheese Gouda prices fell by -1% MoM but are up by +5% YoY. Product availability remained strong, while cheese production – particularly mozzarella, exceeded current demand.

Rapeseed oil - Rapeseed oil prices have strengthened since early July, even though seed prices remain relatively low. Concerns are growing over harvest delays and potential production losses in Canada, Ukraine, and possibly Australia, despite expectations of a slightly better-than-anticipated crop in the EU. Pricing remains significantly impacted by external factors such as Trump and the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Isreal.

This summer has been challenging for growers due to extreme weather conditions. Due to these increased temperatures, we have seen a rise in the influx of insects, as our watered and well looked after crops provide the perfect environment for insects to flourish, unlike the rest of the dry countryside.

Broccoli – The market supply of broccoli has been affected due to the high temperatures. The main concern is around weight, as well as availability and some issues with pests.

Cauliflower – there are market-wide shortages with limited stocks available. This is caused by the warm weather speeding up the growth of the crop, resulting in it being harvested before the next fields are ready to be harvested.  Growers across Europe are facing similar issues. There is also increased pressure from insects in the crop.

Lemons – the Southern Hemisphere will come to an end around 3 weeks earlier than expected due to flooding across South Africa in May/June which caused significant damage and loss of fruit. We will be transitioning to the Spanish crop although there will likely be quality and availability issues from mid-September.

Potatoes – There are concerns over the recent dry weather and the impact this could have on the harvest. We will not know the full extent of this season’s harvest until November, when the majority of the crop has been lifted from the ground.

Peaches – As a result of volatile weather conditions over the last 12 months, including hail and frostbite in spring 2025, then followed by high temperatures which resulted in increased deformed fruits as mites spread easier in warmer climates. Consequently, this year’s crop has 25% less supply and is driving up pricing.

Pineapple – There remains limited raw material due to hot weather affecting the crop output in spring 2025, in addition to a backlog of orders resulting in supply staying tight amongst the same demand levels. Overall supply is down 41% over the last 15-year average.

EU natural gas prices fell by -5% YoY, to prices that are down by -5% YoY. Natural gas prices declined in Europe and the US as temperatures began to fall, reducing cooling demand and the need for air-conditioning. Despite lower gas prices, EU electricity prices rose by +17% MoM driven by higher production costs.