The last quarter saw challenging weather and transport conditions, putting significant pressure on availability. Flooding in Spain and Morocco disrupted key crops including brassicas, peppers and tomatoes, with up to 40,000 hectares affected and longer-term impacts still emerging.

Operational disruption in Almeria and suspended departures from Tangier caused delays into the UK, particularly for salad crops.

Snowfall across France and vessels bypassing UK ports for Rotterdam added further strain, with limes and South African butternut squash among the most affected.

Milk production in the UK has remained strong over the past quarter, running around 3–5% ahead of last year. Good farm margins and favourable conditions have supported higher output, leaving the market with surplus supply.

This has put pressure on farm-gate prices, with costs easing in recent months. Softer demand across some dairy categories—particularly cheese—has added to this downward pressure.

While supplies remain high heading into the spring flush, any improvement in export demand or tightening of supply could help bring more balance to the market later in the year.

Beef: Prices have stabilised on the wider market over the last 3 months. Premium cuts have been struggling due to the very high price point, leading to an increased demand for forequarter cuts, specifically trim products as consumers respond to the record high pricing. There was some inflationary pressure on these cuts over this period.

Lamb: UK lamb prices in Q1 2026 have started strongly, driven by a tight supply of new season lambs and high carryover from 2025. The GB deadweight SQQ passed 721p/kg by early January 2026.

Chicken: Prices rose sharply in 2025, up 16–20% across the UK and EU. Reduced availability—driven by avian influenza and tighter stocking density rules—continues to support higher prices, with Red Tractor-certified stock particularly limited.

Whitefish: remained under pressure for the last quarter, with reduced quotas and changes to MCS ratings resulting in more limited options to fish from and forcing up pricing to account for this.

Icelandic cod and haddock remain the most dependable options for availability and responsible sourcing, as opposed to Norwegian cod.

Frozen stocks of cod & haddock experienced enormous rises that are likely to be seen into the next quarter. There is simply a lack of stock because of quota reductions particularly in the Barent Sea and of course the embargo of Russian stocks.

Last quarter was the peak season for bi-valve species, including clams, mussels, oysters and scallops, which should be consumed during the months with an ‘R’ for best flavour and value.

Beef: Tight cattle supply continues to drive inflation risk. Be cautious over the coming months, with UK production set to fall by 1.3% in 2026 and peak supply pressure in Q1–Q2. High prices and limited global stock are pushing demand towards cheaper forequarter cuts such as mince and burgers.

Lamb: UK sheep meat production is forecast to fall 3% in 2026. While high carryover will boost early slaughter, a smaller lamb crop will tighten supply later in the year.

Demand remains steady, exports are growing on strong EU demand, and imports are set to rise. Prices remain supported, with ongoing risks from weather, disease and global supply changes.

Chicken: The market continues to feel the impact of last year’s AI outbreaks, with tight supply and elevated costs keeping prices high. Ongoing pressure from feed, energy and supply chains means further inflation remains a risk. Strong demand persists, with chicken still viewed as a key value and versatile protein.

Pork: Prices are expected to remain stable in 2026, with scope for easing later in the year. Lower slaughter numbers are being offset by heavier carcass weights (about 4kg YoY), while imports remain subdued despite a narrowing EU price gap. African Swine Fever in Europe and feed cost volatility remain key risks to watch.

Milk production in the UK is up around 5% year on year. Due to weaker demand, this has created a significant surplus of milk, which has flooded the market and pushed prices down. However, this is expected to be a short-term situation.

Avian influenza cases have surged in recent days despite warmer weather, putting pressure on egg availability. If supply tightens, pricing impacts are likely. We will continue to monitor closely.

The next quarter marks the transition from winter into spring for fruit and veg. From March, more UK-grown produce begins to come through, including British asparagus, Jersey Royals and outdoor rhubarb, replacing Yorkshire forced rhubarb.

Winter greens continue to deliver strong kitchen value. Purple sprouting broccoli remains in excellent condition, along with UK curly kale Rainbow Chard, which are both performing well across UK harvests. As reliance on imports reduces, more British summer crops will become available, helping to ease pricing as transport pressures lessen.

Watch Out: Spanish growers continue to face challenging conditions, with prolonged rainfall, cooler temperatures and ongoing logistical pressures tightening supply across key lines. The situation remains under close review as the season progresses.

The next quarter is fairly unpredictable within the seafood market, influenced by weather, water temperature and Easter  demand. After extreme highs last quarter, some price stabilisation is expected into spring, though salmon continues to buck the trend, with prices remaining high.

Trout: Freshwater rainbow trout is predicted to stay stable as a less popular species. If salmon prices continue to increase, we are likely to see demand increase for all trout varieties including Chalkstream trout.

Sea bass and Gilthead bream: Prices remain firm due to reduced stocks in previous months. Prices should now stay stable as most increases have already occurred.

Menu Recommendation: Monkfish - a great option for Spring, where prices have eased in recent months and no significant increases are expected for Spring. Rated MCS 2-3, it is a good sustainable option.