Pests – Extreme weather conditions have led to an increase in insect activity. Brassica crops and lettuce have been most affected, although growers are working hard to limit the impact.

Cabbage – Availability remains tight for both red and white cabbage after hot, dry summer conditions reduced yields. Ongoing quality issues, including insect damage and water stress, mean more trimming is required, reducing head size and further limiting supply.

Peppers – Almeria, Spain’s main growing region, is facing thrips pest challenges. This was unusual for this early in the season

Cucumbers – Warm October weather sped up crop growth, creating a short gap between harvests and tightening availability.

Tomatoes – Large beef tomatoes were limited due to late plantings in Spain and Morocco.

Shipping Delays – Poor weather disrupted shipping as the busy Christmas period approached. Delays increased, with suppliers closely monitoring the situation.

Extra Virgin Olive Oil – Global production rose sharply in 2024-25, led by a 48% increase in Spain, reaching 1.3 million tonnes. Total EU production rose 31% YoY to nearly 2 million tonnes, above the five-year average. After minimal stock was carried over from drought-hit 2022–23, normal weather in 2025 restored yields.

Rapeseed Oil – Rapeseed and vegetable oil markets strengthened due to tighter supply from harvest delays, rising biofuel demand, and ongoing global conflicts, including in Ukraine and Israel. These factors added volatility to an otherwise stable market.

Milk – Production remains around 6% higher than last year, continuing to outpace demand. Over Christmas, the resulting surplus forced some farmers to dispose of excess milk, highlighting an ongoing supply-demand imbalance. Production continues to exceed market needs, putting downward pressure on commodity values and prompting processors to implement price cuts in late 2025. This trend is reflected in the significant milk farmgate price drops in Q4 2025.

Cheese and Butter – High milk supply and growing stocks of cheese and butter are putting pressure on processing and storage capacity. As a result, prices are under pressure. Many buyers are holding back on large purchases, sensing that the market has not yet bottomed out.

Beef – Prices remained high over the past three months, and around 25% higher YoY. Supply pressures continue, with domestic production limited by smaller herds and lower cattle throughput.

Chicken – Prices rose more moderately in 2025 than beef but remain far above recent years, with YoY increases of 18–22% in the UK and EU due to supply tightness from disease outbreaks. Despite higher costs, chicken remains a cost-effective protein, keeping demand robust. Prices stayed high last quarter but have started to stabilise.

Turkey –Prices ran high into the festive season, with up around 30% YoY for whole birds due to Avian Influenza and reduced stock. Supply disruptions across the UK and EU, combined with strong demand, created price volatility, especially for fresh products in November and December.

Pork – Pricing remained stable last quarter. Pork continues to be one of the most cost-effective proteins options available.

Beef – Supply is expected to remain tight into 2026 due to continued reductions in cattle numbers. Prices eased slightly late in 2025 but remain elevated, with supply-demand gaps keeping price floors, especially for mince and burgers. Imports from South America may help fill volume gaps, but global demand will limit any major price relief.

Chicken – Supply and demand are starting to balance, but seasonal Avian Influenza outbreaks can create sudden volatility. Disease disruption tightens flocks and lifts prices. The next quarter is expected to be relatively stable, though bird flu remains the critical risk factor.

Pork – UK production grew YoY in 2025, supported by a larger breeding herd and heavier carcass weights. Exports to China are down following tariff hikes, which has softened demand and eased prices. Looking ahead, lower prices are expected next quarter as supply continues to outpace demand.

Road & Rail Delays – Ad-hoc challenges including farmer action, customs delays, and late loadings are posing risks to timely deliveries from Europe.

Salad Crops – Storms and wet weather in Spain have disrupted harvesting, particularly for lettuce, causing market-wide shortages of key lines. Quality is also affected, with damaged outer leaves and discolouration from standing water. Falling temperatures in Spain are expected to further reduce availability.

Broccoli and Cauliflower – Poor weather in Spain is disrupting broccoli availability, with harvesting halted in many areas. Current frosts may also have detrimental impact on product quality.

Carrots – Freezing conditions could create some quality problems for carrots, leading to reduced shelf-life.

Dairy – Dairy product prices are still expected to soften in Q1 2026 until supply and demand rebalance. Recent price reductions, combined with higher costs such as purchased forage, are hitting farmers hard.

Attractive beef prices may encourage some to reduce herd sizes, which could tighten supply later and push prices up during the spring flush if culls are deep.

Goat & Sheep Pox – Outbreaks in Greece are spreading among livestock. Strict control measures are in place, with over 500,000 animals culled so far. While the disease does not affect humans, it could impact feta cheese production and exports, making this situation one to watch closely.

Salmon – Post-Christmas demand softens slightly, but prices are unlikely to fall due to ongoing supply constraints and higher input costs.

Flat Fish – Native flat fish look set to be a key opportunity in Q2 as quality and availability improve after winter. Plaice from the North Sea offers consistent quality and relatively stable pricing. Megrims (Cornish sole) remain an economical, underutilised option, ideal for feature dishes and menu differentiation.

White Fish – Cod and Haddock will remain under pressure for Q2. Quota restrictions and reduced availability from key catching grounds continue to support high and volatile pricing. For cost control, coley continues to offer value and versatility, particularly for processed options such as fishcakes, goujons and pies.

Shellfish – Crab and lobster pricing is expected to soften slightly post-peak season, though weather disruption and export demand could still drive short-term volatility. Flexibility on size and format remains key for maintaining supply.

Beef – After a record year for inflation (around 20% YoY), the market has stabilised slightly. However, indicators suggest that further inflation is a risk in 2026 due to sustained demand and low cattle availability.

Herd recovery is not expected for at least 18 months, with kill numbers down by around 5% YoY. We anticipate 2026 to follow a similar trend of tight supply availability and further pressure on pricing.

While inflation slows, consumers remain price-sensitive, favouring value cuts like mince, while demand for fresh beef remains strong.

Chicken – Prices rose sharply in 2025, up around 18–22% across the UK and EU. Avian influenza (AI) outbreaks and tighter stocking density requirements reduced availability and increased prices. UK Red Tractor-certified stock is particularly scarce. 

Further inflation is possible in Q2 if new AI or Newcastle disease outbreaks disrupt supply in the UK and Europe.

Demand remains stable, but supply has been hit by poor harvests over the last few years, leaving little carryover stock from droughts and frosts in key regions like India and Turkey. Pricing is expected to remain volatile, with further increases likely in the coming months.

Dried apricots are particularly unpredictable, so where recipes allow, switching to more stable alternatives such as currants is recommended.

Lettuce – Flooding in Spain has damaged crops, with mud splash and pinking affecting quality.

Peppers – Thrips pest challenges in Almeria is creating ongoing quality challenges this quarter.

Cucumber – Supply remains tight due to high demand and a slow crop recovery from earlier weather-related gaps.

Shipping Delays – Poor weather and port congestion are causing delays. Some vessels may bypass UK ports to maintain European schedules, requiring onward transport by road or feeder vessels.

Road Transport – Farmer protests at the French border are disrupting routes from Spain and Morocco, causing delays of 24–48 hours for produce.

From April 2026, the UK National Living Wage for ages 21+ rises to £12.71/hour (from £12.21).

Significant increases also apply to younger age bands: 16–17, apprentice, and 18–20 rates. The 18–20 rate is likely to impact staffing costs, while the 16–17 apprentice rate primarily affects suppliers.

Frozen Stocks – Cod and Haddock prices are rising sharply this quarter, driven by low stock levels due to quota reductions in the Barent Sea and the embargo on Russian supplies. Cod landings from the Barents down 50% versus 2023.

Raw-material reports show continued price fluctuation across key bakery input products.

Sugar and cocoa have seen pockets of deflation or stabilisation, but rising energy, labour, and transport costs are driving manufacturing and distribution expenses higher, limiting suppliers’ ability to absorb commodity volatility.

Coffee prices remain volatile this quarter. This is shown in recent price changes we saw over the month of December.

In December 2025, coffee was $4.05 (USD/Lbs), fell to $3.40 (USD/Lbs) on the 19 December and has since risen to $3.80 (USD/Lbs) in January. These volatile movements are likely to continue.

Eggs – Avian Influenza remains highly prevalent as we head into the colder months, affecting both egg supply and the meat industry. Prices are unlikely to improve until warmer spring weather.

It’s prime season for most bi-valves, oysters and mussels. All are fattening up, offering excellent value.

Pork – UK producers are increasing carcass weights and efficiency to offset limited herd growth, and we've seen strong EU supply and export shifts from China. UK Pork production is forecast to grow in 2026. This is bringing cheaper pork into the UK. 

Consumers remain price-sensitive, leading to increased demand for affordable cuts. Pork has remained resilient this year and continues to offer great value for budget-conscious consumers. 

In-season produce, such as carrots, parsnips, and apples, is currently plentiful with no supply issues.

We encourage chefs to feature seasonal produce where possible.