Lamb: UK lamb prices remain at historically high levels with no relief in sight. New season Lamb pricing is well above any comparable period in recent years. The underlying supply picture hasn't changed: a smaller 2026 lamb crop, constrained EU availability and limited southern hemisphere imports continue to underpin elevated pricing through Q3. Pivot into diced, minced and secondary cuts to protect margins.

Beef: The structural story remains the same - tight cattle numbers, reduced slaughter numbers and elevated production costs. Prime cattle slaughter is running 1.8% below last year, with heavier carcass weights the only thing keeping production broadly flat. The key watchpoint for August is the EU's planned restrictions on Brazilian beef in early September. Increased volumes of Brazilian product could be redirected to the UK ahead of the deadline, however, we anticipate that the secondary impacts of Brazilian beef being removed from the market will apply further pressure on EU & UK beef pricing.

Chicken: Demand from foodservice continues to strengthen as operators substitute away from beef and lamb, further tightening availability of Red Tractor fresh chicken. Feed costs are rising again - spot ration costs are at their highest in a year following the impact of the Iran conflict on wheat and soya markets - compounding the supply tightness from last year’s stocking density commitment shift. Fresh chicken spot pricing will likely remain volatile.

Pork: Continues to offer stability in both availability and pricing. With cost pressures affecting most other animal proteins, pork presents a cost-effective alternative where suitable.

The extreme temperatures being experienced across Europe are placing increasing pressure on dairy farming. During periods of intense heat, dairy cows experience heat stress, which reduces feed intake and milk yields, with some farmers reporting production declines of up to 20% on the hottest days. Italy has been particularly affected, where prolonged drought conditions have tightened milk availability and contributed to increasing pressure on major cheese categories such as Parmesan.

Keeping dairy herds cool also comes at a substantial cost. Higher spending on cooling systems, ventilation, water consumption, and herd management is increasing production costs for farmers, and these additional costs are expected to flow through the supply chain over the coming months.

This combination of lower milk output and rising production costs has reduced the surplus farmgate milk that was previously available across the market. As a result, milk availability is becoming tighter, and processors are facing increased competition for supply.

We therefore expect to see an impact across the broader dairy sector, with cheese, butter, cream, yoghurt and other milk-based products all likely to experience firmer pricing and ongoing supply pressure if extreme weather conditions persist.

Late summer presents some excellent opportunities across the seafood market, with several species offering outstanding quality and value as chefs make the most of the season.

Flatfish are a standout choice this month. Plaice, brill and megrim are all in prime condition, with improved yields following the spawning season. Megrim, often overlooked, offers delicate, sweet flesh and exceptional value, making it a superb addition to seasonal specials. All species are rated MCS 3.

Whole sea bass and gilthead bream continue to perform well through the summer, with stable supplies despite warmer sea temperatures. Their versatility and Mediterranean character make them a natural fit for late summer menus, whether simply grilled or roasted with seasonal vegetables. Rated MCS 2 they are also a great sustainable choice.

White fish, however continues to be a challenge. We have seen significant inflation across the board on haddock and cod. This is due to reductions in Total Allowable Catches (TAC), increases in fishing costs, sanctions on Russian caught fish and global tariffs.  These factors have led to unprecedented highs in the cost of raw material, and it is unlikely we are going to see these soften in the near future.

Weather: Prolonged heat, drought conditions and water restrictions across the UK and Europe are creating pressure across the Fresh Produce category.  Growers are experiencing pest pressure, reduced yields, smaller produce due to the lack of water with availability challenges to continue through August.

Brassica: Hot weather and reduced rainfall are challenging the growing conditions which will continue for the next few weeks across , Broccoli, Cauliflower, Red, White, and Sweetheart Cabbage. Concessions are in place, expect smaller than spec crops.

Tomatoes: Expecting to see challenging supply and quality for the next few weeks, the heat is causing reduced shelf life especially on Beef and Plum tomatoes. Isle of Wight production is improving weekly but not fully recovered.

Peppers: Tight market due to heat, Spanish quality is impacted by the heat, however Dutch growers are harvesting immature fruit to maintain shelf life which may affect quality and taste. 

Cucumbers: Unstable supply and limited volumes due to heat affecting yields. Tight availability expected until new season arrival.

Mushrooms: Hot weather is affecting the compost cooling, this is delaying the harvest and leading to reduced yields and sizes. Most impact seen on large mushroom lines.

Root Vegetables: Potatoes & Parsnips: The lack of water over the past month is affecting the Root Vegetable crops. The hard ground is not taking the water, therefore irrigation is ineffective. Baking potatoes will be affected the most due to the sizing, expect to see issues with 40's and 50's in the coming season. In addition to this Parsnips are seeing smaller roots and lower yields, leading to reduced quality.

The rapeseed oil market continues to experience significant volatility driven largely by heightened geopolitical uncertainty and weather events. Energy markets remain elevated by continued conflict in the Middle East, which are supporting elevated rapeseed oil prices. Russian attacks on key Ukrainian ports and low Rhine water levels have created logistics delays in edible oil markets. Finally, a strong El Niño is predicted to remain through the remainder of the year impacting vegetable oil production globally.

Wheat: This commodity is also in an inflationary state, due to the heat and droughts across many European countries the yield so far this year has dropped significantly. We're hopeful that as the year progresses small deflation will start to show with a fluctuation in weather and harvest.

Sugar: Due to a drop in sugar beet production, we could expect to see some minimal inflation in this area. Production and Yields are currently tracking c.8% down YoY as a result of the prolonged dry hot weather. Prices remain volatile whilst we navigate through these pressures.

Overall, we're hopeful that late August rain will alleviate some of the harvest and supply issues helping towards stabilisation and even deflation although, this wouldn't be expected to hit until early 2027 due to the above points.