Reasons to be cautious:

Ongoing volatility in commodities, driven by climate change, global supply chain disruptions, and movements in energy costs and labour

FISH

The inflation outlook remains most challenging in whitefish, where quota reductions and supply constraints continue to support higher prices. In contrast, farmed species such as salmon, sea bass, sea bream and prawns are showing greater supply stability.

MEAT & POULTRY

Beef: While UK cattle numbers remain historically low (slaughter numbers down 1.8% Yr on Yr), beef prices have stabilised during 2026 due to weaker consumer demand, increased prime cattle carcass weights, and higher beef production levels (up by approx. 0.9%). Additional competition from imported non-EU beef has helped cap the runaway inflation we saw in 2025. Although short-term pricing pressure has eased, underlying cattle availability remains constrained, which could increase inflationary pressure later in the year if supply remains constrained.

Lamb: The lamb market continues to be influenced by reduced domestic flock numbers and changing global supply patterns. UK sheep and lamb populations remain at historically low levels, with the 2025 lamb crop reported as the lowest since records began. Availability is expected to remain relatively tight throughout the remainder of 2026. Weather-related challenges and reduced flock sizes continue to support higher pricing, making lamb one of the more volatile protein categories this year.

DAIRY

Cheese production is up in UK retailers by 1.4%, and the cow’s milk cheese has also increased by 4.8% in retailers. We can soon expect this trend to reach foodservice. Additionally, the dairy cow kill has risen by 4% when compared with the preceding six months. This may reduce supply and could increase inflationary pressure on cheese prices later in the year.

FRUIT & VEG

Weather is the biggest risk across the category. It is currently causing issues for Citrus, Raspberries & Blueberries, and Herbs.

Citrus: Storms and flooding in South Africa have disrupted both crop development and harvesting for Lemons and Easy Peelers. Harvesting is running around three weeks late, and some fruit has suffered water damage. Availability is expected to remain impacted through July and August.

Raspberries & Blueberries: The British season, which should now be underway, is slightly delayed due to recent high temperatures. Market supply is tight as the Moroccan and Portuguese seasons come to an end. As British volumes gradually increase, availability should steadily improve.

Herbs: Coriander and Parsley would normally be fully British at this point in the year, but the wet winter followed by early summer heat has pushed the season back. Availability is currently challenging, though this should ease as additional British fields come into production.

Carrots: We have reached the seasonal crossover, with the winter crop finishing. Ageing and quality issues in the remaining old crop are typical for this stage, but supply is tight while we wait for the new season to begin over the coming weeks.

GROCERY

Rapeseed Oil: The conflict in the Middle East has contributed to higher crude oil prices, which in turn is affecting biodiesel markets. As biodiesel remains cheaper than crude, demand is shifting toward biodiesel, driving its price higher. Additional upward pressure is coming from new regulations in Germany requiring oil companies to reduce their greenhouse‑gas emissions, increasing biodiesel usage. The market also remains cautious due to dry weather across parts of Europe and Australia, leaving crop output uncertain.

Reasons to be optimistic:

UK inflation slowing; Key commodity movements flattening or slowing

MEAT & POULTRY

Pork: continues to offer the strongest value proposition across the meat category, supported by stable supply, competitive pricing and lower inflationary pressure compared with poultry, beef and lamb. For operators managing ongoing food and labour cost challenges, pork provides an effective alternative protein for menu development and cost optimisation where appropriate.

DAIRY

Avian Influenza was widespread over the winter and, unusually, outbreaks continued into spring. As we move into the summer months, cases are expected to decline, reducing disruption across the supply base. With fewer outbreaks anticipated, supply conditions should begin to stabilise, easing some of the pressure seen earlier in the year.

GROCERY

Canned Fruit & Veg:

Sweetcorn: Supply from Thailand remains strong, with year‑round production and competitive processing capacity helping to keep broader price inflation in check.

Pears: Reduced domestic consumption in China has shifted more product into export markets, leaving the global market oversupplied through 2025. As factories work through surplus stock to reduce storage costs, prices have softened and are expected to remain favourable in the near term.

FRUIT & VEG

British produce is now coming into peak season as we move into the warmer months. Isle of Wight Tomatoes, Strawberries, Blackberries, Jersey Royals, British Asparagus, Leeks, Frisée (a strong alternative to Rocket), Micro Herbs and Outdoor Rhubarb all have excellent availability and are showing their best flavour.

BAKERY

The bakery category is in a cautiously positive position. Wheat and sugar fundamentals are supportive, and cocoa has shown meaningful stabilisation. Overall, inflationary pressure appears more stable, with potential opportunities for cost mitigation where market conditions allow.

Cocoa: Markets have stabilised after extreme volatility, supported by stronger West African production. Although cocoa remains the highest‑risk bakery input, inflationary pressure is easing and prices are expected to hold broadly stable through Q4.

Wheat: Prices remain below recent highs, helped by strong European supply. While energy, fertiliser and freight costs still pose risk, the current outlook is favourable and offers scope for further deflation into Q4.

Sugar: Global supply remains strong and prices are steady. European beet sugar is still sensitive to energy costs, but overall inflationary risk is limited heading into Q4.