Fast food and casual dining restaurants experienced their sharpest drop in customer traffic in two years during the first quarter of 2026, as ongoing cost-of-living pressures continued to weigh on consumer spending.

According to the latest figures from Meaningful Vision, footfall declined by 2.3% across more than 60,000 fast food, pub, and casual dining venues in the three months to the end of March—marking the steepest fall since January 2024.

Pub and restaurant visits fell by 7.6% in Q1 2026, a deeper decline than the 6.9% drop recorded during the same period last year. Meanwhile, the quick service restaurant (QSR) sector also shifted into negative territory, with a 1.2% decrease compared to 1% growth in 2025. Chicken outlets were the only bright spot, seeing a 6.2% rise in footfall.

Regionally, growth was limited. The South East (up 2.7%), Greater London (up 4.1%), and the South West (up 15.9%) were the only areas to record increases, potentially driven by a rise in staycations amid ongoing travel disruption. However, London itself saw a 5.8% drop in customer traffic and a 0.8% decline in its overall market share—the largest contraction of any region.

At the same time, menu prices continued to climb, rising by as much as 8% overall and sitting 2.3% higher than a year earlier. The steepest increases were seen in February and March, particularly in categories such as extras and dips (up 13.6%) and hot drinks (up 13.5%).

Growth in the number of outlets has also slowed significantly, with expansion in the fast food and casual dining sectors dropping from 2.4% in Q3 2025 to just 1.1%.

Maria Vanifatova, CEO of Meaningful Vision, noted that the sector’s performance is becoming increasingly concerning. After achieving 1% growth last year, the fast food segment has now declined by 1.2%, driven partly by a slowdown in new openings and, more significantly, by weakening like-for-like customer demand as consumers rein in spending.

She highlighted inflation as a key factor, with prices rising at their fastest rate in 15 months in February. Although there was slight easing in March, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are expected to sustain inflationary pressures. This is likely to further strain the hospitality sector, which is already facing multiple challenges—though a potential increase in staycations could offer some relief during the summer months.