Norwegian Cod prices have surged dramatically since the end of 2023, reaching an all-time high due to the US ban on Russian Cod. While the new quota may provide some relief, prices are expected to remain elevated for the foreseeable future.

Salmon prices are expected to rebound in the coming months. With current lower prices and strong supply, Norwegian suppliers are likely to take advantage by freezing stock, which could drive prices up when they are released at higher rates.

Tip: Consider Alaskan Pollock or Hake as an alternative to Norwegian Cod. ChalkStream Trout is also a stable priced alternative to Salmon if prices start to
spike.

Deadweight cattle prices have been rising consistently since July in both the EU and UK. The total UK cattle population saw a 2% reduction, driven by declines in the Beef breeding herd. Less supply across Europe is putting more pressure on UK exports. As a result, we expect prices to remain elevated.

We are seeing tight availability, particularly for Prime Steak Cuts, keeping prices high, as well as for Round Cuts suitable for slow cooking, due to gaining demand ahead of the festive period. Featherblade Steaks are also going up significantly in price with very high demand.

Tip: Consider alternative proteins such as Poultry or Pork to help mitigate costs on menus.

Pig meat production in the EU has seen some resurgence in growth in the first six months of the year compared to 2023.

This growth has been driven by production gain across most EU nations. Poland saw the largest increase up 80,000 tonnes to sit at 934,000 tonnes so far this year. Germany, the second largest producer in the EU, made production gains of nearly 19,000 tonnes to reach just under 2.1m tonnes up to June, while Danish production grew 2% to 673,000 tonnes. However, Spain (the largest producer in the EU) saw a decline of just over 27,000 tonnes to 2.46m tonnes in 2024 so far.

Given the increase in overall EU production, alongside tepid domestic and international demand, prices have shifted lower as supplies outweigh demand. The EU S grade pig price saw another weekly decline to 179.49p/kg for the week ending 01 September, a fall of 2.7p from the previous week.

Bacon streaks continue to move up as pork bellies remain very strong with Japan, Taiwan and Korea still buying heavily which is putting pressure on supply and prices have increased on streaky bacon due to this.

The back bacon market has recovered some of the fall from September as was expected. Summer trade in pork loins was poor and as often happens slaughterhouses produce more bacon to extend the life but all that happens is the bacon market is flooded and the price collapses. With Northern European counties returning from holidays demand has  picks up ,with the help of better weather loins sales have been much stronger and we are seeing strong prices in retail.

Potato harvesting is continuing, with early indications that Salad/Small Potatoes (Mids) and larger Baked Potatoes will be problematic this season. This is due to a reduced growing period following weather-related delays and lower plantings. We won’t know the full extent of this season’s harvest until November when most of the crop has been lifted from the ground.

There have been some quality concerns with new season White Cabbage, with some increased oxidation on the outside of the product. Red Cabbage is also seeing some problems.

Challenges are also apparent with Green Beans, with tall weeds affecting the efficiency of mechanical harvesting.

We’ve seen a few issues with broccoli caused by the heat but overall very good quality. Although late, cauliflower is a good size and quality.

Sadly the summer fruit season will wind down towards the end of the month and prices will begin to firm up from late October / early November.

UK apples have started off in great style this year.

Discovery apples, with their distinctive pink flesh, can be used in a wide range of sweet or savoury dishes. Coxs Pippins and Russet apples are
now arriving from UK orchards. Two terrific varieties packed with distinctive flavours, great value and stunning looks.

Conference pears, which hold their elegant shape, are a great option this month.

UK strawberries have been fantastic this summer but will move to Dutch glass house this autumn before Mediterranean fruit starts in November.

Southern hemisphere lemons have been incredibly short recently, stock levels will begin to ease with the Spanish season starting. Late month
Southern Hemisphere grapes will begin to appear from South Africa. With fruit travelling further, this will increase pricing although quality will be good.

The transition from Mediterranean avocado supply to southern hemisphere sources for summer was challenging, but we are now seeing a return to more stable supply.

October is the main transitional month in salads with many key products switching seasons. UK salads will come to an end with whole head lettuce starting to arrive from Spain, France and Italy. Dutch season officially ends on 19 October although we are already seeing Spanish tomatoes, cucumber and peppers gradually beginning to appear.

It is worth noting Spanish product will not have the sculpted looks of Dutch produce although quality is not compromised.

Longer term outlook - UK growers are increasingly moving away from traditional, higher-risk, and more labour-intensive crops. The ongoing challenges in the labour market have prompted them to shift towards crops better suited for mechanised harvesting and lower risk, such as sugar beets and cereals.

Tip: Consider Kale or Spinach as an alternative to Cabbage. Green beans can be replaced with Broccoli. For potato alternatives, we recommend Carrots, Cauliflower and Butternut Squash.

At their best:

• Butternut Squash
• Pumpkins
• Celeriac
• Parsnips
• Quince
• Horseradish
• Leeks

Planning ahead:

• Blood Oranges
• Brussel Sprouts
• Red Cabbage

In the UK, there is a growing demand for poultry produced under higher welfare standards, which emphasizes lower stocking densities and longer lifespans for birds. While these standards improve animal welfare, they also result in reduced overall supply this will impact availability and prices will increase.

Adding to the supply issues UK broiler production experienced a slight decline in August, marking the first monthly drop in six months. Chick numbers fell by nearly one million, compared with August 2022. Despite this, the figure remains higher than it was in 2020 and 2021, with 91 million chicks placed in August 2023, still 2.5 million higher than two years ago.

Milk shortages continue in the market. Production is down 1% YoY, which equates to 20 million litres. This is linked to producers channelling Milk into more profitable commodities such as Cheese, which is driving prices upwards. The rising profitability of Butter due to increasing prices could support Butter production for the rest of 2024.

Producers are still increasing farmgate prices due to the pressures that farmers are facing around increased costs. This is due to farmer pressure where their costs continue to increase, therefore putting pressure on producers.

The cream market is extremely short of supply at the moment due to low milk supply and lower fat content impacting availability, which has not only affected cream price, but also put the whole EU butter market into jeopardy. The reason for the short supply is due to low milk supply off the back of the weak spring flush, and also the poor quality of meat which has led to low fat content in the milk. Cows are not milking well and haven’t been all year due to spring weather and grass conditions thereafter. Blue tongue disease (mainly on the continent but now on UK shores) restricting imports of livestock. Cull cows also in demand. UK milk volumes down 60m litres, liquid milk consumption up.

The butter market continues to be in a very difficult place. Retailers and wholesalers are now being shorted to a high degree with Sainsburys, Tesco and Waitrose not advertising or selling 250g butter online.

Cows are not milking well and haven’t been all year due to spring weather and grass conditions thereafter. Blue tongue disease (mainly on the continent but now on UK shores) restricting imports of livestock. Cull cows also in demand. Processers can sell cream with less risk and better cash flow rather than making butter. UK milk volumes down 60m litres, liquid milk consumption up. UK butter production down 4.5%, EU butter production down 23000T YTD, this will be 40000T by year end.

Most Catering Disposables are imported from the Far East and are therefore impacted by fluctuations in shipping and freight. The conflict in Gaza is continuing to have a significant effect on sea freight prices and availability. Container rates increased dramatically in January and although they dipped slightly, they have continued to rise again since May.

As well as increased costs, availability of scheduled shipping has reduced, making it harder to secure slots for containers, resulting in supply and availability concerns.