Sea Bass and Gilthead Bream supply is tight, with rising prices due to warmer waters accelerating harvest and increasing disease. Prices are expected to remain high into 2025.

Monkfish prices will peak in December due to holiday demand and Mackerel availability will decrease post November, driving up prices.

The price of Salmon was stable in November but is projected to increase with holiday demand and reduced harvests. Winter sores may also impact quality at this time of year.

Cod prices remain high due to quota cuts, and Haddock price increases are starting to hit as well. Coley offers a cost-effective and sustainable alternative.

Tip: We recommend Trout, especially ChalkStream, as an alternative to Salmon’s imminent inflation. Coley is a great alternative to volatile priced whitefish. We also recommend native Shellfish including Scallops, Mussels, and Oysters, which are in peak season over the winter months.

Cattle slaughtering in the UK has been down for a number of years resulting in an inflationary market. Today, kill numbers remain down but demand for UK Beef remains high. Exports are up with high demand coming from other parts of Europe and the Middle East. Deadweight pricing is currently at all-time high, and we don’t anticipate this softening over the next few months.

We recommend switching into more cost-effective proteins, such as switching from Beef mince into Pork mince.

Aubergine, Cucumber and Courgette are being closely monitored as there have been some challenges caused by excessive rainfall and high humidity.

Salads could see some issues with quality and availability caused by the impact of the recent floods.

We are expecting the market availability challenges with Easy Peelers, caused by the Spanish floods, to ease in mid-December as the Moroccan variety arrives.

November has seen poor weather and low light levels which has impacted the Tomato crop.

There are currently no major availability issues with Potatoes although we expect to see some problems with salad potatoes and large bakers later in the year.

Tip: Brassicas are in good supply. We recommend opting for seasonal produce, such as Root Vegetables, wherever possible.

Dairy fats have been in short supply, which has had a significant impact on farmgate Milk pricing. Milk prices have been climbing throughout the year, with Arla announcing their November farmgate price at 47.65p per litre, a 10p per litre increase since the start of the year.

Cream prices hit a record high in October, although this has been easing as milk production has increased. Prices remain high, especially as we approach the busy seasonal period when cream usage typically rises.

Butter prices are still elevated, as dairy processors are choosing to sell cream at higher prices rather than churning it into butter, which is more costly. That said, milk production did increase in October. While it's still too early to fully assess the impact, the increase in milk production should help bring prices down if production continues to rise.

The Vegetable Oil market has taken a sharp turn upwards in recent months, with prices surging across the board due to a convergence of global factors. Initially, there was optimism around strong harvests in Canada and the U.S., especially the record-setting U.S. soybean crop. However, these gains were overshadowed by challenges in other key areas.

In Europe, Rapeseed production suffered a significant blow, with heavy spring rains reducing production by an estimated 3 million metric tons. This shortfall has strained supply, pushing prices upward.

Meanwhile, the Palm Oil market faced unexpected difficulties. Normally, palm oil production provides a steady supply year-round, but this year, the seasonal increase in output failed to materialise. To compound the issue, Indonesia, the largest producer of palm oil, announced plans to increase its biodiesel blend from 35% to 40% by early 2025. This policy shift has redirected substantial volumes of palm oil to the biofuel sector, creating additional pressure on global supplies and inflating prices.

Sunflower Oil has not escaped turmoil either. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and Russia has severely disrupted sunflower oil exports from the region. Ukraine, a major player in the global sunflower oil market, continues to grapple with logistical challenges, leading to significant price hikes as supply struggles to meet demand.

The effects of these disruptions have rippled through the market. With palm oil and sunflower oil under strain, buyers have turned to alternatives like rapeseed and soybean oil, driving their prices higher as well. Even the U.S.’s abundant soybean crop has not been enough to stabilise the market.

Adding to these challenges is the macroeconomic landscape. A strengthening U.S. dollar has made imports more expensive for UK buyers, while the UK’s latest budget, characterized as highly inflationary, is increasing operational costs for oil suppliers. Rising labour and import costs compound the challenges already posed by volatile oil markets.

In summary, the vegetable oil market is caught in a perfect storm of weather-related production issues, geopolitical conflicts, and policy-driven demand shifts. Prices are likely to remain elevated and unpredictable in the coming months.