Salmon prices are likely at their lowest point in the market, with an anticipated upward trend in the near future. Prices for larger salmon (over 5kg) have already increased, and smoked salmon prices are expected to rise next month. Cod prices are currently high and subject to significant volatility, making it advisable to avoid purchasing at this
time. A shift towards more stable and cost-effective alternatives, such as Hake or Pollock, is recommended.

Native Lobsters have seen price increases going into October due to seasonality (June to September).

The fresh fish market has performed well this autumn, supported by favourable weather conditions. However, as winter approaches, pricing may become more unpredictable due to weather.

Tip: Native Shellfish, including Mussels and Oysters, are now in peak season, offering excellent quality for your menu.

Due to extreme dry weather in the Philippines/South East Asia, Coconut crops are down in production by 20%. The price of Coconut and Coconut Oil are on the rise and are expected to rise further over the coming months.

A Category 4 Hurricane in South East USA has resulted in losses of Pecans and Peanuts. Reports indicate around 60% of Pecan trees were uprooted, whilst Peanut fields have seen disease pressure and delayed harvesting.

The Turkish Hazelnut crop is down by 30% due to dry weather in Black Sea coastal areas during the critical nut development stage in late spring last year. Currant prices continue to soar as availability in Turkey and Greece is tight.

Tip: We recommend using Walnuts and Brazil Nuts in substitution of Pecans. Consider Raisins as an alternative to currants.

Key points

• Production up on the year by 4% Jan-Sep, driven by strong demand and prices.
• Irish beef imports hold strong, amongst widening price differential between UK and Ireland.
• UK beef exports up 10% for the year-to-date versus 2023, with key growth to non-EU markets.
• Prime cattle prices continue to move upwards, with R4L steers and heifers sitting above 524p/kg on average.

Beef supply in the UK remains tight even though slaughter numbers edged upwards on the week. Beef demand remains strong across retail, food service and manufacturing sectors. This imbalance between supply and demand added slight upward potential across the beef cuts.

Key points

• Production growth in 2024 driven by higher carcase weights, while clean pig kill will support production in 2025
• Small decline in the female breeding herd for 2024, but some growth expected over the next couple of years
• Challenges continue for export markets with increased geopolitical tensions
• Imports see support from foodservice demand and competitive EU product pricing
• Overall demand picture remains unchanged for 2024, driven by declining retail volumes, but flatter demand is expected in 2025, following economic trends

So far 2024 has been a period of market stability for the UK pig industry with supply and demand seeming to be in relative balance.

Key points

• UK sheep meat production has fallen by nearly 8% so far this year
• Clean and adult sheep kill has declined considerably compared to 2023
• Imports have increased in the months to August, as Australian volumes start to creep up

Production

• UK sheep meat production has fallen considerably from 2023, currently sitting 7.8% lower January-September. Production has totalled 193,000 tonnes so far this year, with volumes for September at 21,900 tonnes.
• Clean sheep kill has totalled 8.19m head so far in 2024, a fall of nearly 700,000 head (7.9%) from the same period in 2023. September kill sat at 939,000 head, a slight increase of 2,600 head from August, but 61,500 head behind 2023. So far this year we have not seen a month exceed 1m head slaughtered, highlighting the tightness of supply compared to prior years and the continued current high and record prices we have seen for lamb in 2024.

The UK market is the easy part. There are only two “UK” turkey producers left, Bernard Matthews and Avara.

In Europe this year we have seen Animex (Smithfield) exit the turkey market. The factory will not be killing turkey any longer so this has created a big drop in availability of EU turkey through the rest of this year. To compound matters further bird placements across Europe have been reduced on turkey as people search for extra chicken capacity to cover the reduction in stocking density.

All the indications at the minute point towards turkey being in very short supply come December. Prices in the Summer months were around 20-30pkg behind the same point last year, which is why so much was secured forward by groups which has turned out to be more attractive given the forward market pressures we have seen above.

Recovery from the current levels looks unlikely with shortages on every forward contract now appearing. It is going to be very hand to mouth in terms of supply along with very unpredictable pricing dictated by supply/demand, and this is happening here and now. The turkey sector has shrunk to reflect the market conditions this year and is very clear in the prices being quoted.

In reflection and looking into 2025 will Turkey become a luxury item ….food for thought.

Salad and Lettuce

We're currently in the transition between the UK and Europe/North Africa with all crops currently on schedule. Cucumbers, aubergines and courgettes are already mostly Spanish, and peppers are expected to move early this week. Recent weather events which has the potential to impact aubergines and courgettes.

Tomatoes will move to Morocco and Spain by the end of the week, all being well. The first tomato deliveries from the Canary Islands will be arriving in early November, around a couple of weeks earlier than last year, as we have put additional contingency plans in place as a result of market shortages and droughts last year.

The cold and wet weather has slowed the growth of iceberg lettuce, where size remains small. We have a weight concession in place to maintain availability and allow farmers to harvest full fields. Spanish produce is beginning to arrive and this will ramp up rapidly in the coming weeks.

Avocados

Over the past couple of weeks, there have been significant shipping delays with produce coming from Chile. This created some availability issues on Class 2 avocados. While the new fruit has now arrived, it is early in the season and has been slow to ripen, exacerbating the issues across the market. However, we are not expecting any further supply problems, which should now return to normal.

Broccoli

There are some significant and ongoing market supply issues with broccoli. However, we have been able to manage supply well despite these market-wide challenges. Supply is extremely tight and there are some quality issues with this end of season product, for example with the produce yellowing.

Green Grapes

A concession for slight discolouration remains in place for green grapes, which have been affected by the extreme summer temperatures in southern Europe. This will end in early November with the arrival of Peruvian and Brazilian products. There is no impact on availability. There are some concerns over the Peruvian and Brazilian harvests, which will mean that supply will be very tight through that season. We do not expect any major supply problems.

Mushrooms

The situation with mushrooms across Europe is gradually improving, helping availability. While the improvement in availability is good news, supply remains very tight. Our suppliers are also monitoring quality very carefully as the produce is not lasting as well as expected.

The problems are the remnants of the pan-European problems with compost, which had failed to get down to temperature causing the mycelium to burn.

Citrus Fruits

We are transitioning from a difficult southern hemisphere season to the northern hemisphere. In order to maintain availability, we have some concessions in place until November when we will be fully into the Spanish season. We are mitigating some indifferent early season quality of Spanish satsumas by continuing to
source South African easy peelers.

There are no availability issues or eating quality problems with limes, but the drought conditions in Brazil are impacting the colour of the skin. While this remains within specification, it is paler than the vivid green that we are used to seeing.

Potatoes

Harvesting has slowly resumed following the very wet weather that we experienced over the past couple of weeks. In the coming weeks, as most of the crop is lifted, we will be able to provide a fuller report on the season’s outlook, although the indications are that the crop looks similar to this year.

Cauliflower

Cauliflower growth is slowing with the colder weather, however while market supply remains tight, it is stable. The weather will be critical to supply over the coming weeks but, at the moment, there are no major concerns about quality or availability ahead of the first Spanish product arriving in November to supplement
the British season and maintain availability during the challenging periods.

Curly Kale

We are monitoring quality very closely as it has been adversely impacting the crop, with rejections due to yellowing. The produce is also not lasting as well as expected and we are working with suppliers to put contingencies in place to try to mitigate this, including lowering stock holdings and increasing delivery days where possible.

Strawberries

Following the challenging end to the British season, supply has now moved to Holland significantly ahead of the normal schedule. There have been some issues during the transition between origins, but these are short-term, and we expect supply to normalise very quickly.

Pointed Cabbage

Demand is high for pointed cabbage. Spain is a little behind, but we are expecting our first deliveries shortly. Working with our suppliers, we continue to manage supply well, despite the challenges with UK supply.

Tip: We recommend taking Lettuce off menus and focusing on seasonal produce such as Root Vegetables. Consider Green Beans as an alternative to Brassica. Carrots, Parsnips and Swede are great alternatives for Potatoes.

Milk production is down 3% year-over-year which equates to around 20 million litres. Milk processors have responded to market conditions by raising their farmgate milk prices to farmers, providing greater motivation to increase production.

Butter prices have surged by over 60% in 2024. This is due to supply concerns resulting in short-term purchasing, with buyers looking to lock in volume. While prices are expected to ease slightly in autumn, they are forecasted to rise again as demand increases toward the Christmas season when people consume more rich and fatty foods.