The first half of 2025 has been a turbulent period for the fish and seafood industry, particularly within the whitefish sector. Cod and Haddock continue to face significant challenges due to quota cuts and area closures, resulting in persistent shortages.

Prices have surged, while quality, especially for Haddock, has been inconsistent. In Europe, farmed Bream and Bass have again experienced high mortality rates driven by rising water temperatures, contributing to supply-side inflation. Meanwhile, the Salmon market has shown irregular trends, with recent lows breaking from traditional seasonal patterns, though prices now appear set for a rebound ahead of Christmas.

Beef - After a record year for beef inflation, pricing is beginning to stabilise in the market. However, indicators suggest that further inflation is a risk in the lead-up to Christmas due to increased demand and sustained low cattle availability.

Chicken - This year has seen significant inflation in chicken prices, with increases of approximately 18–22% across both the UK and EU markets. Avian Influenza (AI) outbreaks earlier in the year and improved stocking density requirements have led to a decrease in availability, increasing prices. UK Red Tractor-certified stock is particularly scarce at present. There is a risk of further inflation as we move into winter with an increased likelihood of new AI outbreaks.

Turkey - Over the last eight months, UK whole turkey prices have risen by an average of 25–28%, driven by severe supply chain disruptions. Widespread AI outbreaks across the UK and Europe have forced culls, reduced breeder stock, and disrupted imports from key suppliers such as Poland, France, and Hungary. Last year, pricing for fresh turkey increased by approximately 20-30% in the lead-up to Christmas, and a similar trend is expected this season.

• Top Tip: We would recommend booking in frozen turkey ahead of Christmas as pricing won't be as volatile in the lead up to Christmas compared to fresh.

Lettuce – After several challenging weeks with pests affecting the lettuce harvest, growers are beginning to see improvement. The crop is expected to remain British until the end of the week before transitioning to Spanish supply, where weather conditions are presenting some challenges.

Broccoli – We are approaching the end of the British season and transitioning to Spanish supply. While availability remains good, problems with pests are a challenge. Suppliers are working closely with growers to minimise the impact.

Cabbage – Pests continue to affect cabbage varieties, including Savoy and Cavolo Nero, with white fly and other insects impacting crops. Maintaining weight is a major challenge and concessions remain in place.

Lemons – We are expecting to transition to Spanish supply at the beginning of November, although we are expecting a poor Spanish harvest with significantly reduced yields. However, quality and size are expected to be good.

As we head into the autumn and winter months, there's an increased risk of bird flu due to migratory birds. France has already issued a nationwide order requiring all birds to be kept indoors, and several cases have been detected here in the UK as well.

• Top Tip: With this in mind, please try to limit the use of eggs on menus where possible, in case supply becomes tight. It’s also a good idea to consider using liquid egg as an alternative, as it tends to remain more widely available during bird flu outbreaks.

Canned Tuna - Fishing vessels operating in the South Atlantic Ocean have been unable to catch fish via the pole and line fishing method because of the rising sea temperatures, causing fish to move into the cooler, deeper water. Availability remains for fishing vessels on the Indian Ocean but tightened supply has caused increases in pole & line prices. Supply of other sourcing standards such as FAD Free and MSC Purse Seine remains stable.