Beef - After a record year for beef inflation, pricing is beginning to stabilise in the market. However, indicators suggest that further inflation is a risk in the lead-up to Christmas due to increased demand and low cattle availability.

Chicken - This year has seen significant inflation in chicken prices, with increases of approximately 18–22% across both the UK and EU markets. Avian influenza (AI) outbreaks earlier in the year and improved stocking density requirements have led to a decrease in availability, increasing prices. UK Red Tractor-certified stock is particularly scarce at present. There is a risk of further inflation as we move into winter with an increased likelihood of new AI outbreaks. 

Turkey - Over the last eight months, UK whole turkey prices have risen by an average of 25–28%, driven by severe supply chain disruptions. Widespread AI outbreaks across the UK and Europe have forced culls, reduced breeder stock, and disrupted imports from key suppliers such as Poland, France, and Hungary. Halal-certified whole turkeys have experienced even higher inflation (+25–32%). Last year, pricing for fresh turkey increased by approximately 20-30% in the lead-up to Christmas, and a similar trend is expected this season. In contrast, frozen turkey pricing tends to remain more stable during this period.

• IMPORTANT: It’s essential that you plan ahead for Christmas now – forecast and share your turkey (fresh and frozen) volumes with your Procurement Managers as soon as possible. Prices are likely to rise as demand increases - consider frozen or previously frozen options to protect against inflation.

Milk – Milk prices have remained stable over the past year. However, recent hot weather has scorched the ground, raising concerns about how much silage farmers have been able to harvest and store for winter. If they don’t have enough to feed their livestock, they’ll need to supplement with more costly purchased feed, potentially pushing up the farmgate milk price.

Cream - Cream prices have risen gradually over the past few weeks, reflecting the usual seasonal pattern as demand increases in the lead-up to Christmas. Prices typically stabilise after the festive period.

• Top Tip: Where possible, switching to a lower-fat cream, such as Whipping or Single cream instead of double cream, can provide commercial advantages.

Sea Bass & Gilthead Bream - Prices remain at record highs following slower fish growth last winter. Gilthead bream offers a more cost-effective alternative to sea bass, although larger sizes remain limited.

White Fish - Cod and Haddock supplies remain under pressure with quotas tightening 21% this year and closures reducing availability. Prices are expected to stay firm into 2026. Flexibility is vital; Alaska Pollock remains the best alternative to cod and haddock due to its MCS 1-2 rating and abundant availability. Fresh Hake continues to land well and is increasingly popular with UK customers, making it a strong option for a premium whitefish option.

Canadian Lobster - Prices are firming on pounded stock until November, although native lobster availability should help support supply.

Mackerel - New advice from the International Council for the Exploration of the Seas (ICES) shows the sum of the unilateral quotas for mackerel has resulted in catches exceeding the scientific advice by, on average, 39% over the past 15 years , and the stock biomass is now below the critical threshold. Scientists have recommend a 77% cut in catches in 2026 and warn that failure to adhere to the advice may lead to a lower chance of stock recovery.

• Top Tip #1: Plaice is in full swing and provides a great alternative for fish and chips.
• Top Tip #2: Mussels, now out of spawn, will be at their best quality and remain a winter staple during months with an ‘R’.

We have experienced the driest summer since 1976, which has impacted crops and led to a significant increase in insect activity across the country. This issue affects all field-grown crops, not only in the UK but across the EU. Until recent rains, treatments were largely ineffective without water to carry them around the plants. While growers have now treated crops, it will take at least a week for aphid numbers to fall, as treatments need time to take effect and harvests are restricted for seven days following application.

Lettuce - With restrictions on the timing and amount of treatment that is permitted, it is proving very difficult to provide an immediate solution to the problems, despite additional measures that suppliers have put in place. As Iceberg Lettuce grows from the inside out, we have seen aphids contaminate the immature heads as the plant develops around them. This means that contact treatment cannot penetrate to the inner layers and take effect, which is adding to the problems.

Broccoli - The crop has been heavily affected by pests, which are being found in large numbers on farms.

Mushrooms - Growers have faced a very challenging period, as high temperatures in Poland and Ireland have led to reduced yields. Flat and Catering Mushrooms have been the most affected.

Cabbage - Availability issues with both red and white cabbage have arisen due to heat and water shortages during the main growing period, resulting in reduced yield. There are also some ongoing quality issues caused by insect damage and Edema, which means that more leaves need to be removed to reach acceptable quality, resulting in reduced head weight and overall yields.

Berries – The current cooler temperatures have resulted in a significant reduction in overall berry numbers; Strawberries and Raspberries facing the greatest challenges. Blueberries are also becoming increasingly scarce as we approach the end of the British season.

Cocoa Bean - The industry continues to pay close attention to weather conditions in West Africa, with the recent mini dry spell causing some continued concerns over the size of the upcoming main crop. Expana’s August crop surveys showed no change to the 2025/26 production forecast for the Ivory Coast. However, there was a notable deterioration in new crop prospects in Ghana. Semi-finished product ratios weakened in August, with Cocoa Butter ratios falling to a 35-month low, confirming the weakness in demand.

Canned Sweetcorn – Farmgate prices have shown increased stability over the past year, supported by steady crop yields and consistent supply. Any pricing volatility has been offset by the strengthening of the pound against the US dollar over the last 12 months.

Food-To-Go prices have remained stable since 2023. The market is now seeing an average increase of 2.2-2.5% across the range.

This increase reflects broader market pressures, primarily driven by rising raw materials and escalating labour expenses. Given the labour-intensive nature of sandwich production, higher wage demands have had a significant impact on overall pricing.