Inflation outlook and foodservice market update - June/July

15 July, 2026

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose 2.8% in the 12 months to April 2026, down from 3.3% in the 12 months to March.

The annual inflation rate for food and non-alcoholic beverages was driven lower by price movements in five of the 11 categories: meat; sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery; oils and fats; coffee, tea and cocoa; and mineral waters, soft drinks and juices. These declines were partly offset by upward pressure from vegetables and from milk, cheese and eggs.

On a monthly basis, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices were little changed in April 2026 but rose by 0.7% a year ago.

Market movers:

DAIRY

Dairy prices eased as milk supply outstripped demand from March to May, with Mozzarella and Cheddar most affected.

Egg markets remained volatile due to the ongoing impact of Avian Influenza, which continued to restrict availability. Looking ahead to June, egg markets are expected to stabilise as Avian Influenza pressures begin to ease.

Farmgate milk prices appear to be nearing the end of their decline. However, rising energy costs linked to the Middle East conflicts poses a potential upside risk to broader inflation.

BAKERY

Cocoa prices remain volatile but currently stable, with no new supplier-driven inflation, but ongoing weather and sustainability pressures keep volatility high.

Wheat supply in Europe is healthy, supporting short-term price stability.

Sugar remains stable, with strong global supply offsetting high energy costs, and are expected to remain broadly steady with only minor fluctuations in the coming years.

MEAT

UK meat prices are generally stabilising, but pressures remain.

Beef prices are still high due to limited supply and strong demand and are expected to stay tight.

Chicken and pork markets are more stable, with improving supply helping to support stability, although ongoing input costs are still limiting price reductions.

Lamb prices remain firm, reflecting seasonal demand and limited availability.

Overall, poultry offers the most pricing stability, while beef continues to pose the biggest inflation risk.

FISH & SEAFOOD

Fish and seafood prices have eased, supported by improved supply across key species including salmon, sea bass, cod and monkfish. Some volatility remains, with longer-term pressure, especially in whitefish, where reduced quotas and substitution demand are likely to drive price increases.

While current conditions are more stable, ongoing supply and cost pressures could drive prices higher later in the year.

FRUIT & VEG

UK-grown produce is coming into season, improving supply and quality across several lines.

Carrots are transitioning to new crop with better size and shelf life.

Herb supply is shifting to UK sources, with most varieties becoming fully available soon despite slight delays from the wet winter.

Berry supply is strengthening, with British strawberries and blackberries boosting quality and availability, and raspberries close behind. However, delayed British blueberry supply and lower Moroccan volumes may tighten availability later.

UK KEY MARKET MOVERS (CPI)

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation in the UK. Movements in CPI give a high-level overview of the key categories experiencing inflation. Below is a monthly snapshot of the top food commodity price inflation movements impacting the UK. The data is from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Percentage change over 12 months:

Milk, cheese and eggs: 0.4%
Oils and fats: -0.8%
Breads & cereals: 0.8%
Vegetables: 3.3%
Meat: 2.0%
Sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery: 2.3%
Fish: 5.8%
Fruit: 2.6%

FINAL WORD

Regency continue to proactively mitigate availability issues and supply risk, putting solutions in place to reduce impact, such as product switches and recipe re-engineering.

As you are likely aware, the situation in the Middle East is evolving rapidly and has the potential to affect global trade.

When analysing the effects that inflation has on your businesses purchasing, it's important to understand that inflation affects not only the price of goods, but also the quality and availability - this is something that our team of procurement experts can assess in detail, to ensure our members are always achieving the best outcomes in all areas.

We want to reassure you that the majority of our food products are sourced from the UK and EU, and at this time, there is no disruption to our supply chain.

We are closely monitoring developments and remain in regular contact with all our suppliers and brand owners to assess any potential impacts, particularly on imported products, which are mainly non-food items. So far, the only category directly affected is crude oil...

Rising oil prices are influencing transportation costs, manufacturing energy and packaging materials. This may also gradually affect certain products, including cooking oils and oil-rich items like mayonnaise, non-food plastics such as bin liners and food packaging and fish.

We’re proactively reviewing our strategies to manage these impacts and maintain supply continuity. Please be assured that robust contingency plans are in place, and we will continue to provide Regency members with timely updates as the situation develops.

To find out more about ways in which we can help save your business time and money, get in touch.

Sources: Foodbuy, Fairfax Meadow, Birtwistles.

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