Scientists say the fishing of mackerel should be cut by more than 70% next year in the north-east Atlantic to help prevent the collapse of fish stocks.

The latest advice from the International Council for Exploration of the Sea (Ices) recommends a catch limit of 174,357 tonnes be set in 2026 for all mackerel stocks in the region and its adjacent waters. It marks a 70% reduction from the catch limit of 576,958 tonnes that Ices recommended for 2025. But it also comes as a 77% reduction on the 755,143 tonnes that the scientists estimate will be caught this year.

Ices gives advice on maximum catches that would allow stocks to continue to be fished sustainably. But catch limits agreed annually between the EU and coastal countries in the region, including the UK and Norway, have consistently exceeded levels recommended by scientist.

Since 2010, mackerel quotas have been set an average 39% higher than those given in the scientific advice. Overfishing has resulted in depleting mackerel stocks in the north-east Atlantic, with Ices saying the species, and the wider fishing industry, could face long-term risks unless countries stick to recommended catch limits.

Conservationists have recently warned that while some management measures are in place in the region, enforcement remains insufficient. They also highlight the lack of a unified management plan between countries to prevent overfishing.

Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) Director, Erin Priddle commented:

“This advice is a stark warning: without urgent action, mackerel stocks are at very real risk of collapse.

The science is clear, and now, after years of inaction, governments must put aside political deadlock and work together to agree quotas in line with scientific evidence for the long-term sustainability of this critically important species.

The MSC has been calling for action for years, urging decision-makers to heed the science before it’s too late for this vital stock.

Sustainable alternatives are available, with some brands already choosing to switch, but lasting change will only come if ministers act now to safeguard the future of this iconic species and the fisheries and communities that depend on it.”

However, members of the fishing sector have accused Ices of taking an “over-precautionary approach” when formalising its advice. Ian Gatt, chief executive of the Scottish Pelagic Fishermen’s Association (SPFA), said:

“The headline recommendation of a 70% reduction in Total Allowable Catch in 2026 compared with this year is presented as ‘the best available science’. It may be based on science, but its conclusion is a hammer blow to the industry because of bad assumptions and frankly guesswork.

It seems that absurdly cautious assumptions have prevailed over hard evidence. ICES advice has been highly variable in the past few years and we understand that this year it reflects an arbitrary choice of a recruitment period into the fishery. It is unacceptable that the viability of our industry should be jeopardised by an ICES best guess decision plugged into a computer model. In short, the same science with better assumptions would lead to a much better outcome for our industry.”

• There are no MSC-certified mackerel products currently available in the UK from that stock
• Some brands are already making moves: for example, Princes is shifting from Northeast Atlantic sourcing to the MSC-certified Chilean jack mackerel as an alternative
• The governments of the UK, EU, Norway, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, Greenland and Russia have for over a decade failed to set quotas that align with scientific advice. Combined catches have exceeded safe limits
• If a stock collapse occurs (i.e., when the population cannot sustain itself via natural reproduction), recovery can take decades and may require severe restrictions or total fishing moratorium

Upcoming quota negotiations (scheduled for mid-October) will be critical in determining whether fishing levels for 2026 and beyond are set sustainably.

Mackerel is likely to become hard to source and prices will no doubt rise as competition for landings increase - we suggest switching to alternative fish where possible.